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K2 Advisors, the hedge fund focused investment management unit of Franklin Templeton, continues to overweight most insurance-linked securities (ILS), but in its outlook for 2025 notes that meaningful catastrophe bond issuance is required to absorb cash in the marketplace.
The investment manager commented, “Following the continued spread tightening that was a dominant theme in the second half of 2024, catastrophe bonds printed another year of record issuance.
“This momentum looks to carry into 2025, with several transactions looking to settle in the first weeks of the year and more anticipated by mid-January. Overall, the market appears relatively healthy as the dense pipeline of issuance continues to absorb cash.”
But K2 Advisors highlights the softening of pricing seen in catastrophe bond issuance, saying, “spreads have remained relatively suppressed compared to the year prior as various bonds have priced below initial guidance.”
But adds that, “However, this has come on the back of the upsizing of programs—significantly in some cases—as sponsors were able to secure more capacity, alleviating some of the excess cash in the market following a successful year of fundraising across the industry.”
Looking to the outlook for the first-quarter of 2025, K2 Advisors notes the cat bond pipeline appears strong and the market has got off to a strong start in the new year.
“Current broker discussions are optimistic as the primary market is well positioned to bring meaningful size in the first few weeks of the new year, with various programs slated to be announced following market participants’ return from the holiday(s).
“Activity in the primary, in addition to end of year rebalancing, should have a knock-on effect for the secondary market, with volume potentially returning after several months of relatively low activity during the second half of 2024,” the investment manager explained.
But, adding a note of caution, K2 Advisors believes the pipeline needs to continue building to supply the new cat bond investment opportunities that fund managers require to absorb excess cash in the marketplace.
K2 Advisors said, “Overall, the market seemingly has too much cash heading into the new year, a situation that could potentially be remedied with meaningful issuance sizes as the market continues to be poised for growth.”
Across insurance-linked securities (ILS), K2 Advisors remains overweight the asset class in conviction terms, and remains strongly overweight catastrophe bonds, private ILS (so collateralized reinsurance) and retrocession.
But the ILS market segments have changed in order slightly in the K2 Advisors hedge fund strategy conviction ranking, with now retrocession at the top, followed by cat bonds and private ILS transactions.
K2 Advisors has stayed neutral in its conviction for industry loss warranty (ILW) investments and remains strongly underweight life insurance-linked security investments.
K2 Advisors says cat bond issuance must absorb cash, raises conviction on retro was published by: www.Artemis.bm
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